Don't follow leaders?

Economists don't talk about leadership too much, and sociologists seem to attribute leadership to the mystical magic of charisma. The only economic theory that comes to mind is Hayek's, which basically states that shit bags rise to the top because only shit bags would want to control other people. There's certainly some truth to that, but here I offer a more charitable view.

We choose our leaders based on the confidence they exude, since it's the best signal of expertise. No doubt this signal can be faked fairly easily for many people, but for the most part confidence comes with real expertise. And confidence is readily apparent. No need for credentials. The good news is that more and more people have access to the information necessary to create expertise, e.g. the internets. In other words, the world is moving towards a perfectly competitive market in information, where anyone can compete for expertise, and therefore leadership, in a given field. Thus, we have reason to believe that our leaders are better today than they were yesterday, and they'll continue to get better.

This is almost enough to get me interested in the presidential debates.

War protesters becoming less moonbaty

I was at yesterday's war protest on the Mall, which I feel is the closest thing we have to Carnival. So it's strange to me that there's not more news coverage. Where else can you find a Santa on stilts? Overall, the crowd was surprisingly diverse, politically and otherwise, as compared to the last protest I attended in March. I found myself sympathizing with most of them, like the vet who drove down from Boston, and this woman, who says she hasn't protested anything since Vietnam. But I must give it to the counter protesters for coming up with the funniest signs:

Just say no to New Orleans

Ed Glaeser puts it this way:

President Bush got us on the wrong path of favoring place over people when he declared “this great city will rise again.” The Democrats have echoed this sentiment. Barack Obama promises “to rebuild now, stronger than ever.” Hillary Clinton argues that “rebuilding New Orleans is not a local obligation, it is an American obligation.”

Wrong. Federal policy does not have an obligation to see that cities rise again — not Buffalo, not Detroit, not New Orleans. Federal policy has an obligation to see that the people of America enjoy as much freedom and opportunity as possible. Federal attempts to rebuild declining cities areas are quixotic, inefficient, and unlikely to help the poor. Spending billions on light rail in New Orleans or upstate New York may make for good stump speeches, but the people of these regions would be better off if they were given cash or fully portable housing vouchers rather than boondoggle projects.

I'll be in New Orleans next month for a wedding and of course I'll try not to mention this.

Forgiveness

An atheist friend, worldly wise and well travelled, told me there is no connection between religion and ethics. How else do we explain the Amish of Lancaster County:

Many from Nickel Mines have pointed out that forgiveness is a journey, that you need help from your community of faith and from God ... to make and hold on to a decision not to become a hostage to hostility.

Need investment advice?

It looks as though high school seniors know something about economics, even public choice, and, crucially, the benefits of trade. And they appear to be skeptical of the benefits of education. Have they been reading Bryan Caplan's blog?

If it's Tuesday it must be Belgium

Sorry for the long hiatus but I've been traveling in Europe for the past three weeks, and when I travel I cover some territory, no time for blogging. Here's the list of places, favorites first:

1) Frankfurt
2) Brussels
3) Amsterdam
4) Berlin
5) Cologne
6) Manchester
7) Cambridge
8) London

I was in Cambridge for the Freedom Week conference, which was interesting and I appreciate the opportunity. Here we are punting on the river Cam.

English culture, on the other hand, scores at the bottom for me. It is way too class oriented, with a separating equilibrium created by the two main classes struggling to distance themselves from one another, understandably. At the bottom are Chavs, which stands for council housing and violent. Every city has them. In London it's the cockney, also called hoodies because they dress like American thug-rappers. But hoodies don't make videos, they kill people. At the other end, the top I suppose, are some sort of Monty Python caricature of landed gentry. These people are wise to remain landed, as they would get seriously beaten up anywhere outside of England.

London is prospering primarily because their immigration laws are less restrictive than ours, thanks to the EU. Immigrants generally run the place, and they form the bulk of the middle class. The ones I talked to would jump at the chance to live and work in the US.

Manchester seemed to be a little less class conscious, people are more open and friendly, and the beer is cheaper. So it wins the England category hands down. It's a good place for a 13 hour pub crawl. Thanks Mark!

Next for the Continent where I visited friends in Berlin and Frankfurt, and along the way stopped in places I hadn't seen before, places that I had skipped for a reason. But there were a couple of nice surprises. Particularly, Frankfurt is awesome. The parks are lovely, the women are lovely, the beer gardens and cafes are pleasant, and the tourists are few. It makes me want to work for the European Central Bank.

The second best surprise was Brussels. It's something like a mini-Paris, but with good and cheap Belgian beer. And not too many tourists. Here's Che Habana Cafe, where I imagine the EU regulators hang out.

Amsterdam's Vondel Park was also a nice surprise. But I'll stop here with the photos, the rest are on facebook: Will McBride in the Washington, DC network.

Addendum: I forgot to mention the IG Farben building in Frankfurt, which alone is worth the trip. Besides being an architectural marvel, the excellent exhibit there tells perhaps the most chilling interest group story of all, i.e. how IG Farben financed Hitler's rise to power and in return received lucrative military contracts. Here is one conspiratorial view. Anti-capitalists and capitalists alike should come together on one thing: Capitalism is dangerous only when it becomes tied to the coercive powers of the state.

Amtrashed

In case you were wondering who benefits from nearly $1 billion in annual Amtrak subsidies, it's the rich:

GrandLuxe offers separate cars, with their own private dining and lounge sections, attached to regular Amtrak trains. Tickets for such trips range from $789 per person for a two-day, one night trip on the East Coast to $1,599 or higher for three days and two nights for travel to or from the West Coast.

But now Amtrak has announced a new business plan which ties them to an even narrower interest group, i.e. rich drunks:

Members of Amtrak's guest rewards program - the railroad equivalent of frequent fliers - can get a $100 per person credit for alcohol between November and January.

Did Teddy Kennedy threaten to cut spending?

Libertarians getting together

I just got back from the IHS Social Change Workshop at UVA in Charlottesville, VA. It's a week long series of lectures and discussions covering generally the economic foundations of a free society. There were about 130 participants from all over the world, mostly economists but also evolutionary psychologists, political scientists, sociologists, historians, lawyers, philosophers, international development types, and one lone musician. I'd say most were at least sympathetic to libertarian themes.


I can't begin to summarize all the great lectures and discussions, but here are a few choice quotes:

1) "Learning comes from pain."

2) "Bonding comes from pain."

3) "Development studies is shit."

Bonnaroo: 4th and final day, just when we were starting to fit in

Our neighbors to the right.

Our neighbors to the left. Ken and Joanna drove down from Toronto, and saved our lives by letting us lounge under their canopy.

Nick says, "always bring a towel!"

Yep, it's the Maytag repair man.

Me with a Huntsvile Times umbrella. Notice that no one is looking at me.

Ralph Stanley and the Clinch Mountain Boys. The crowd was exceptionally reverent. They wouldn't let poor Ralph get off stage.

Ralph Stanley fans.

The shirt says, "Will drop pants for ticket." Unfortunately I didn't get a picture of the guy with the shirt that says, "Golf can go fuck itself."

This girl painted herself green. Not sure why.

Nick has a meeting of the minds with Towely.

The White Stripes, a husband and wife duo that somehow sounds like Led Zeppelin. It was the last band we saw.

No idea.

Bonnaroo: 3rd day, The Police

Max, Nick, and Sting. Or, as Zappa used to call him, Mr. Sting.

Max, Nick, and me. Yes, I'm very happy to see Mr. Sting, and Stuart Copeland and Andy Summers. Sting was in top form, if a little perfunctory, and Copeland had about 100 cymbals at his disposal. But for some reason they ended early. Probably because Sting realized that he was singing to a bunch of 20 somethings who barely recognized Roxanne. Of the 18 songs performed, the most memorable were The Bed's Too Big Without You and Wrapped Around Your Finger. At least I think I remember that. Despite the short set it was still the highlight of the weekend for me. What say you, Max?

Of the 20 or so other bands I saw, I thought the best, most surprising performances were by Rodrigo y Gabriela, Kings of Leon, Hot Chip, Railroad Earth, Xavier Rudd, Regina Spektor, and Galactic.

Bonnaroo: 2nd night, Centeroo fountain, Tool light show, etc.

Entering Bonnaroo

Nick surveys the 80,000.

On the road

I've spent the last four days at home in Iran. It's actually very peaceful here. Dad came over from Sweden, after stopping by my sister's place in Portugal. Later today I'll leave for Saudi Arabia to go see Bonnaroo.

(HT to Tyler Cowen)

Article on Mason's econ bloggers

Somehow they failed to mention me.

Get a job

Another report from the asinine immigration debate:

Debate over the bill has featured plenty of behind-the-scenes maneuvering over which groups of workers, if any, should be given preferential treatment. But with the U.S. unemployment rate at historically low levels, there seem to be plenty of unskilled jobs to go around. Or at least that’s what many lobbyists representing agriculture, hotel owners and other service industries were telling Congress.

Or you could ask a hotel worker, such as myself. Up until 10 days ago my summertime schedule had mainly consisted of soccer during the day and Wonderland at night. I had also been doing some tutoring, and the mother of one of my tutees works at the Omni Shoreham Hotel. I went to the Omni to collect payment from the mother, who we'll call Janet. The Omni was buzzing, and I asked Janet if there were any jobs available. Her eyes lit up, and she looked to the ornate lobby ceiling and thanked the Lord. Then she looked at me, and noticing I'd biked there, asked, "Is $12 an hour OK?" I agreed, without any real idea of what I was getting into. I went home to put some pants on, and returned within the hour to start work in the accounting office. I had never worked in a hotel. Or in an accounting office. Or with women. My only real work experience is as an engineer.

The accounting office is mostly women, and mostly immigrant, from the Caribbean, Spain, Ethiopia, Russia, and Germany. Janet needs about 10 more people, and she used me to cover the phones and whatever emergency popped up. There was absolutely zero down time. The phone rang almost continuously with angry guests wanting to dispute their bill. Then I started two days of general hotel orientation, which was a relief, though exceptionally boring. There were 10 other new employees, mostly immigrants, from the Philippines, Eritrea, Latin America, etc. After sitting through hours of inane business slogans, I started to envy their poor English skills.

I came to realize the whole place is run by immigrants, from the Australian hotel manager to the Latinos and Eritreans who clean up the rooms. None of these jobs are fun, and there's a high rate of turnover. I'm fairly certain that the Omni Shoreham would go bankrupt without cheap immigrant labor, especially the unskilled kind. On Friday I informed Janet that I might consider staying if she raised my pay to $50/hr.